The rating
The Power Index is an Elo-style rating. Every team carries a number; after each completed regular-season game, the winner takes rating points from the loser. How many points move depends on how surprising the result was given both teams' ratings, so beating a strong opponent counts for more than beating a weak one — the rating is opponent-adjusted by construction.
Score margin, with a cap
The model uses final scores, not just wins and losses. A larger margin moves ratings further, but the margin effect is capped so that running up the score or a late empty-net goal cannot inflate a rating. Only completed regular-season games count; exhibitions and unplayed games are ignored.
Overtime and shootouts
Games decided in overtime or a shootout are treated as closer to even than regulation results, matching the league's points system, so a shootout win moves ratings less than a regulation win.
Game odds
The rating gap between two teams converts into a pre-game win probability, adjusted for the share of games that go to overtime. Odds are settled against the actual result once a game is final.
Forecast
Once the regular season has results, the forecast runs a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the schedule thousands of times using those game odds, producing projected wins, playoff odds and championship odds.
What we don't do
We don't publish preseason ranking positions or invent probabilities. Until the 2026-27 season has completed games, the Power Index and forecast stay empty rather than guessing.